Potential distribution and habitat suitability of <i>Picea crassifolia</i> with climate change scenarios

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China is a region strongly impacted by climate change, yet its effects on the keystone endemic forest species Picea crassifolia Kom. are unknown. Understanding changes potential distribution and habitat suitability of P. with change will contribute to water conservation, management, ecological protection upper reaches Yellow River. A total 129 records data 19 environmental variables were chosen for modeling. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model was used analyze main factors affecting two periods (2050s 2070s) four representative emission pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). results follows: (i) most important percentage variance explained altitude (41.85%), precipitation driest month (19.76%), slope (12.35%), annual (6.56%), wettest (5.73%), warmest quarter (5.12%); (ii) shifted northwest into high-altitude areas under scenarios, but core concentrated northeastern Plateau, Qilian Mountains, southern Ningxia, Helan Mountains; (iii) area suitable significantly future, not suitable, low, moderate, high exceed 60%.